Posted by cadsmith on December 9, 2009
The web is in New Year prediction mode which seems impressionist at best. To project to the extreme, is it the end of tech? Depends upon which issues are picked. In combination, they do not agree. Conclusions also change depending upon scope: Time-scales, Topics, Decades, or Centuries.
What happens when we reach constraints? Previous stuff becomes efficient. New stuff innovates. There is an attempt to remove barriers. Generations of hardware versions pass. Tech yields more solutions. And becomes a constraint. The learning curve is exponential. It exceeds individual and group capacities. Recursion is probably tangential since it is still weighed down by human context. A course of likelihoods can be plotted through the end of this century, then may be replaced (or annihilated). Reason and expectation are not dependent upon it. Description and prediction are functions of models, without which there is (an end to) illusion. Result is actual. Timeframes may be +/- a decade depending upon resolution scale. Hopes and concerns may be age-dependent. The planet may crash at some point. Scifi would enumerate fears and responses. At what point can we afford to discard tech? Other theories have one equation, mind, machine, algorithm, or type. The observer has identity, it is self that recognizes other by interaction. Perspective is by assignment. One may see position, another momentum. Groups compare notes. Simultaneously, complexity exceeds human capabilities for control. We can pick any element as descriptor and configure relationships to the rest. “All is ___”. Leverage complexity as its own consciousness. Life does. For a while, tech is still about humans, though eventually no longer by them. As usual, shuffle items for varied imaginative experiences. Punctuation is voluntary.
Decades could be labeled mainframe, minicomputers Route 128 microprocessors, PC Internet, 90s Silicon valley web dotcoms, 00s opensource search web2.0 Asia surveillance. 10s digital society socnets avatars realtime video sensors ecommerce semantics education, 20s physical quality energy international security privatization medical, 30s synthetic intelligence human nature DIY materials, 40s emotional freedoms selection of physiological forms, 50s spiritual transformation.
Centuries might have ocean exploration, democracy, science industrialization, 20th quantum physics space exploration internet web, 21st nanotech materials design human essence archives individual recreated from memory civilization choices time solved complex dimensionality unified existences.
Tags track bookmarks, books, software, services, hardware and businesses. Past topics were embedded systems, web2.0, semantic web, and agile. The top 10 personal delicious tags are: security, test, software, web, network, mobile, search, web2.0, social-networks and business. The economy is reportedly growing in Asia and India, solid in Europe and Australia, and recovering in UK and US. Trending terms may be a foreshadow. Realtime features appear for search and analytics. Ecommerce grows, including mobile office/payments/banks in addition to socnets and devices. Video is streaming at higher bandwidth and fibre is competition to home cable. TV’s are 3D. The cloud means business. Games are realistic. Virtualization is an option. Augmented reality is fun. Creativity abounds.