Posted by cadsmith on September 29, 2007
Reviewed The Wisdom of Crowds, Surowiecki, 2004. Groups outperform experts when there is a right answer. They cooperate & work together more than would be expected. Buyers and sellers find eachother and trade. This does not require consensus, and it can tolerate disagreement and conflict. It does not work when diverse opinions are squelched, or when people worry about what others think. Groups can be inside and/or outside an organizationi. The right conditions are diverse, independent, decentralized & there is a way of summarizing opinions. Things that require a skill, such as flying a plane, are not appropriate. Prediction markets are able to accurately guess election outcomes. Supports Eli Lilly who used internal stock markets & hypothetical pharmaceutical candidates to predict FDA approval. Groupthink makes dissent seem improbable, diversity lets individuals say what they think. Final chapter is on democracy. Missed having an index at the end so there may be an advantage to having a digital version for search. Notes are 21 ½ pages fine-print. Book site.